Change rules for hierarchical beliefs

Bernard Walliser and Denis Zwirn
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Denis Zwirn: CREA - Centre de recherche en épistémologie appliquée - X - École polytechnique - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique

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Abstract: The paper builds a belief hierarchy as a framework common to all uncertainty measures expressing that an actor is ambiguous about his uncertain beliefs. The belief hierarchy is further interpreted by distinguishing physical and psychical worlds, associated to objective and subjective probabilities. Various rules of transformation of a belief hierarchy are introduced, especially changing subjective beliefs into objective ones. These principles are applied in order to relate different contexts of belief change, revising, updating and even focusing. The numerous belief change rules already proposed in the literature receive epistemic justifications by associating them to specific belief hierarchies and change contexts. As a result, it is shown that the resiliency of probability judgments may have some limits and be reconciled with the possibility of learning from factual messages.

Keywords: Belief change; Focusing; Hierarchical belief; Objective probability; Revising; Subjective probability; Updating (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2011-02
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Published in International Journal of Approximate Reasoning, 2011, 52 (2), pp.166-183. ⟨10.1016/j.ijar.2009.11.005⟩

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:pseptp:halshs-00754559

DOI: 10.1016/j.ijar.2009.11.005

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