Aggregating causal judgments

Richard Bradley (), Franz Dietrich and Christian List ()
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Richard Bradley: LSE - London School of Economics and Political Science
Christian List: LSE - London School of Economics and Political Science

PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) from HAL

Abstract: Decision making typically requires judgments about causal relations: we need to know both the causal e§ects of our actions and the causal relevance of various environmental factors. Judgments about the nature and strength of causal relations often di§er, even among experts. How to handle such diversity is the topic of this paper. First, we consider the possibility of aggregating causal judgments via the aggregation of probabilistic ones. The broadly negative outcome of this investigation leads us to look at aggregating causal judgments independently of probabilistic ones. We do so by transcribing causal claims into the formal judgment-aggregation framework and applying some recent results in this field. Finally, we look at the implications for probability aggregation when it is constrained by prior aggregation of qualitative causal judgments.

Keywords: aggregating beliefs about causal relations; aggregating probabilistic beliefs; two-stage opinion pooling (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

Published in Philosophy of Science, 2014, 81, pp.491-515. ⟨10.1086/678044⟩

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Related works:
Working Paper: Aggregating causal judgments (2014)
Working Paper: Aggregating causal judgments (2014)
Working Paper: Aggregating causal judgements (2007)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:pseptp:halshs-00978020

DOI: 10.1086/678044

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