Migration as an Adaptation Strategy to Weather Variability: An Instrumental Variables Probit Analysis

Yonas Alem, Mathilde Maurel and Katrin Millock ()
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Yonas Alem: GU - Göteborgs Universitet = University of Gothenburg
Katrin Millock: PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement

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Abstract: There is solid scientific evidence predicting that a large part of the developing world will suffer a greater incidence of extreme weather events, which may increase displacement migration. We draw on the new economics of migration to model migration decisions of smallholder and rain-dependent farm households in rural Ethiopia and investigate both the ex-ante and ex-post impacts of climate variables. Using detailed household survey panel data matched with rainfall data, we show that weather variability - measured by the coefficient of variation of rainfall - has a strong positive impact on the probability of sending a migrant. This implies that households engage in migration to cope with risk ex-ante. We also find evidence suggesting that rainfall shocks have ex-post impact on households' likelihood of migration, but the effect is not significant at the conventional levels. Instrumental variables probit regression results also show that controlling for endogeneity of income using a credible instrument is important to identify its impact on the decision to migrate. Our findings have important implications for policies aiming to improve the capacity of vulnerable households to adapt to climate change.

Keywords: climate change; drought; Ethiopia; household survey; migration; rainfall (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
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Published in Cyndi Spindell Berck, Peter Berck and Salvatore Di Falco. Agricultural Adaptation to Climate Change in Africa, Routledge, pp.384-403, 2018, 978-1-138-55597-6

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Related works:
Working Paper: Migration as an Adaptation Strategy to Weather Variability: An Instrumental Variables Probit Analysis (2018)
Working Paper: Migration as an Adaptation Strategy to Weather Variability: An Instrumental Variables Probit Analysis (2018)
Working Paper: Migration as an Adaptation Strategy to Weather Variability: An Instrumental Variables Probit Analysis (2016)
Working Paper: Migration as an Adaptation Strategy to Weather Variability: An Instrumental Variables Probit Analysis (2016)
Working Paper: Migration as an Adaptation Strategy to Weather Variability: An Instrumental Variables Probit Analysis (2016)
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