Covid-19 and mobility: determinant or consequence?

Hippolyte d'Albis, Emmanuelle Augeraud-Véron, Dramane Coulibaly and Rodolphe Desbordes
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Emmanuelle Augeraud-Véron: BSE - Bordeaux sciences économiques - UB - Université de Bordeaux - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement
Rodolphe Desbordes: SKEMA Business School - SKEMA Business School

PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) from HAL

Abstract: This paper disentangles the relationship between COVID-19 propagation and mobility. In a theoretical model allowing mobility to be endogenously determined by the COVID-19 prevalence rate, we show that an exogenous epidemic shock has an immediate effect on mobility whereas an exogenous mobility shock influences epidemic variables with a delay. In the long run, exogenous disease contagiousness and mobility jointly shape epidemiological outcomes. The short-run theoretical result allows us to recover, empirically, the causal impacts of mobility and COVID-19 hospitalisations on each other in France. We find that hospitalisations are highly sensitive to mobility whereas mobility is little influenced by hospitalisations. In France, it seems therefore that voluntary social distancing would not have been effective to control the epidemic, in the absence of social distancing mandates.

Keywords: COVID-19; Epidemic models; Mobility (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-04331269v1
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Published in Economic Theory, 2024, 77, pp.261-282. ⟨10.1007/s00199-023-01510-3⟩

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Related works:
Journal Article: Covid-19 and mobility: determinant or consequence? (2024)
Working Paper: Covid-19 and mobility: determinant or consequence? (2024)
Working Paper: COVID-19 and Mobility: Determinant or Consequence? (2023)
Working Paper: COVID-19 and Mobility: Determinant or Consequence? (2023)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:pseptp:halshs-04331269

DOI: 10.1007/s00199-023-01510-3

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