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Currency internationalization with Chinese characteristics: Is capital‐account convertibility required for the renminbi to acquire reserve‐currency status?

Barry Eichengreen, Camille Macaire, Arnaud Mehl, Eric Monnet and Alain Naef ()
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Camille Macaire: Banque de France - Banque de France - Banque de France
Alain Naef: ESSEC Business School, THEMA - Théorie économique, modélisation et applications - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - CY - CY Cergy Paris Université

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Abstract: It is widely assumed that the renminbi (RMB) cannot acquire a meaningful place in central bank reserve portfolios without full liberalization of China's capital account. We argue that the RMB can in fact develop into an international reserve currency in the absence of capital‐account convertibility. Trade and investment links can drive use despite limited access to Chinese financial markets. But this route to currency internationalization requires policy support. China must provide access to RMB through loans and the People's Bank of China (PBoC) currency swaps. It must ensure the convertibility of RMB into US dollars in offshore markets. It must provide RMB services at a stable and predictable price. Currency internationalization without full capital‐account liberalization thus requires the RMB to be backed by dollar reserves, which the PBoC consequently will continue to hold and use. Hence, we do not foresee RMB internationalization as supplanting dollar dominance.

Keywords: International monetary system; International reserve currencies; Renminbi (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024-07
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Published in International Finance, 2024, 27 (2), pp.102-128. ⟨10.1111/infi.12447⟩

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Journal Article: Currency internationalization with Chinese characteristics: Is capital‐account convertibility required for the renminbi to acquire reserve‐currency status? (2024) Downloads
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:pseptp:halshs-04814111

DOI: 10.1111/infi.12447

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