Anticipatory Anxiety and Wishful Thinking

Jan Engelmann, Maël Lebreton (), Nahuel Salem-Garcia, Peter Schwardmann and Joël van der Weele
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Jan Engelmann: UvA - University of Amsterdam [Amsterdam] = Universiteit van Amsterdam
Maël Lebreton: PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement
Nahuel Salem-Garcia: UNIGE - Université de Genève = University of Geneva
Peter Schwardmann: CMU - Carnegie Mellon University [Pittsburgh]
Joël van der Weele: UvA - University of Amsterdam [Amsterdam] = Universiteit van Amsterdam

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Abstract: Across five experiments (N = 1,714), we test whether people engage in wishful thinking to alleviate anxiety about adverse future outcomes. Participants perform pattern recognition tasks in which some patterns may result in an electric shock or a monetary loss. Diagnostic of wishful thinking, participants are less likely to correctly identify patterns that are associated with a shock or loss. Wishful thinking is more pronounced under more ambiguous signals and only reduced by higher accuracy incentives when participants' cognitive effort reduces ambiguity. Wishful thinking disappears in the domain of monetary gains, indicating that negative emotions are important drivers of the phenomenon.

Date: 2024-04
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Published in American Economic Review, 2024, 114 (4), pp.926-960. ⟨10.1257/aer.20191068⟩

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:pseptp:halshs-05031057

DOI: 10.1257/aer.20191068

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