The Political U: New Evidence on the Economic Costs of Hybrid Regimes

Nauro Campos, Fabrizio Coricelli () and Marco Frigerio
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Nauro Campos: UCL - University College London [UCL]
Fabrizio Coricelli: PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris, UNISI - Università degli Studi di Siena = University of Siena, CEPR - Center for Economic Policy Research
Marco Frigerio: UNISI - Università degli Studi di Siena = University of Siena

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Abstract: Recent research establishes a positive causal effect from democracy to income, although this evidence relies mostly on binary regime classifications. We extend the identification framework of Acemoglu et al. (2019) to a classification that distinguishes democracies, autocracies, and hybrid regimes for about 170 countries over 1960–2024. We find hybrid regimes generate approximately 20 percent lower GDP per capita than either alternative, robust to a wide range of estimators, measures, and specifications. This effect is not a transition penalty, supporting the view that hybrid regimes are a durable institutional equilibrium with sustained economic costs rather than a simple transitional phase.

Date: 2026-11
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Published in Economics and Politics, 2026, 38 (3), pp.747-769. ⟨10.1111/ecpo.70052⟩

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:pseptp:halshs-05838886

DOI: 10.1111/ecpo.70052

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