Human Capital, Unequal Opportunities and Productivity Convergence: A Global Historical Perspective, 1800-2100

Nitin Bharti, Amory Gethin (), Thanasak Jenmana, Zhexun Mo (), Thomas Piketty () and Li Yang ()
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Nitin Bharti: NYU Abu Dhabi, WIL - World Inequality Lab
Amory Gethin: BM = WB - La Banque Mondiale = The World Bank - WBG = GBM - World Bank Group = Groupe Banque Mondiale, WIL - World Inequality Lab
Zhexun Mo: CUNY - City University of New York [New York], WIL - World Inequality Lab
Thomas Piketty: PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris, WIL - World Inequality Lab
Li Yang: Centre for European Economic Research (Mannheim, Germany) - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung (ZEW) - University of Mannheim = Universität Mannheim, WIL - World Inequality Lab

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Abstract: This paper constructs a new global historical database on public expenditure and revenue and their components—particularly education and health expenditure—covering all world regions over the 1800-2025 period. We document a large rise of human capital expenditure (as % of GDP) in all parts of the world in the long run, but with enormous and persistent inequality between regions. Public education expenditure per school-age individual in Sub-Saharan Africa is about 3% of the level observed in Europe and North America in 2025 in PPP terms (versus 6% in 1980 and 4% in 1950). We also find a large impact of human capital expenditure on productivity growth over the 1800-2025 period, especially for public education and for poor countries. Estimated returns using our macro-historical database are around 10% or more, in line with micro studies. Finally, we present simulations based on alternative human capital expenditure trajectories over the 2025-2100 period. In particular, we analyze the conditions under which convergence in human capital expenditure could lead to global productivity convergence by 2100 (around 100€ per hour in all regions in our benchmark scenario)

Date: 2025-07
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-05501016v1
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Related works:
Working Paper: Human Capital, Unequal Opportunities and Productivity Convergence: A Global Historical Perspective, 1800-2100 (2025)
Working Paper: Human Capital, Unequal Opportunities, and Productivity Convergence: A Global Historical Perspective, 1800–2100 (2025)
Working Paper: Human capital, unequal opportunities and productivity convergence: A global historical perspective, 1800-2100 (2025)
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