Global Inequality by 2050: The Role of Redistribution and Climate Change

Philipp Bothe (), Lucas Chancel (), Amory Gethin () and Cornelia Mohren ()
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Philipp Bothe: PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris
Lucas Chancel: Institut d'Études Politiques [IEP] - Paris, PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris
Amory Gethin: BM = WB - La Banque Mondiale = The World Bank - WBG = GBM - World Bank Group = Groupe Banque Mondiale
Cornelia Mohren: Institut d'Études Politiques [IEP] - Paris, PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris

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Abstract: This article investigates how national income convergence, redistribution, and climate change will shape the world distribution of income until 2050, using a novel source of data on global inequality before and after taxes. Despite ongoing convergence in national income, the global bottom 50% post-tax income share only marginally rises from 9.7% to 11.1% under "business-as-usual", while the top 1% share increases by 0.5 percentage points. Yet, if countries were to adopt the most effective redistribution policies implemented by the best performers in their respective country income group, the global bottom 50% income share could increase to 20%. Redistribution of pre-tax incomes accounts for 60% of this increase, with the remainder due to post-tax redistribution. Climate change is set to exacerbate inequalities, potentially offsetting all the increase in the global bottom 50% share since 1980.

Keywords: Income Inequality; Redistribution; Climate Change (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026-04
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-05620341v1
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