In the core of longevity risk: hidden dependence in stochastic mortality models and cut-offs in prices of longevity swaps

Stéphane Loisel and Daniel Serant ()
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Daniel Serant: LSAF - Laboratoire de Sciences Actuarielle et Financière - UCBL - Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 - Université de Lyon

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Abstract: In most stochastic mortality models, either one stochastic intensity process (for example a jump-diffusion process) or a collection of independent processes is used to model the stochastic evolution of survival probabilities. We propose and calibrate a new model that takes inter-age correlations into account. The so-called stochastic logit's Deltas model is based on the study of the multivariate time series of the differences of logits of yearly mortality rates. These correlations are important and we illustrate our study on a real-life portfolio. We determine their impact on the price of a longevity swap type reinsurance contract, in which most of the financial risk is taken by a third party. The hypotheses of our model are statistically tested and various measures of risk of the present value of liabilities are found to be significantly smaller in our model than in the case of one common underlying stochastic process.

Keywords: Longevity risk; longevity swap; inter-age correlations; stochastic mortality; multivariate process; logit; Lee-Carter (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2007-12
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-00201393v1
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Related works:
Working Paper: In the core of longevity risk: hidden dependence in stochastic mortality models and cut‐offs in prices of longevity swaps (2008)
Working Paper: In the core of longevity risk: hidden dependence in stochastic mortality models and cut-offs in prices of longevity swaps (2007)
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