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Continuous time regime switching model applied to foreign exchange rate

Stéphane Goutte () and Benteng Zou ()

Working Papers from HAL

Abstract: Modified Cox-Ingersoll-Ross model is employed, combining with Hamilton (1989) type Markov regime switching framework, to study foreign exchange rates, where all parameter values depend on the value of a continuous time Markov chain. Basing on real data of some foreign exchange rates, the Expectation-Maximization algorithm is extended to this more general model and it is applied to calibrate all parameters. We compare the obtained results regarding to results obtained with non regime switching models and notice that our results match much better the reality than the others without Markov switching. Furthermore, we illustrate our model on various foreign exchange rate data and clarify some significant eco- nomic time periods in which financial or economic crisis appeared, thus, regime switching obtained.

Keywords: Foreign exchange rate; Regime switching model; calibration; financial crisis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2012-01-21
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cba, nep-fdg, nep-ifn and nep-mon
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00643900v2
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