EconPapers    
Economics at your fingertips  
 

Long memory and structural breaks in modeling the return and volatility dynamics of precious metals

Mohamed Arouri (), Shawkat Hammoudeh, Amine Lahiani and Duc Khuong Nguyen

Working Papers from HAL

Abstract: We investigate the potential of structural changes and long memory (LM) properties in returns and volatility of the four major precious metal commodities traded on the COMEX markets (gold, silver, platinum and palladium). Broadly speaking, a random variable is said to exhibit long memory behavior if its autocorrelation function is not integrable, while structural changes can induce sudden and significant shifts in the time-series behavior of that variable. The results from implementing several parametric and semiparametric methods indicate strong evidence of long range dependence in the daily conditional return and volatility processes for the precious metals. Moreover, for most of the precious metals considered, this dual long memory is found to be adequately captured by an ARFIMA-FIGARCH model, which also provides better out-of-sample forecast accuracy than several popular volatility models. Finally, evidence shows that conditional volatility of precious metals is better explained by long memory than by structural breaks.

Date: 2013-03-07
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-for
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00798033
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5) Track citations by RSS feed

Downloads: (external link)
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00798033/document (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: Long memory and structural breaks in modeling the return and volatility dynamics of precious metals (2012) Downloads
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-00798033

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Working Papers from HAL
Bibliographic data for series maintained by CCSD ().

 
Page updated 2021-07-18
Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-00798033