National influences inside the ECB: an assessment from central bankers' statements

Hamza Bennani ()
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Hamza Bennani: EQUIPPE - Economie Quantitative, Intégration, Politiques Publiques et Econométrie - Université de Lille, Sciences et Technologies - Université de Lille, Sciences Humaines et Sociales - PRES Université Lille Nord de France - Université de Lille, Droit et Santé

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Abstract: This paper aims at discovering the national influences inside the Governing Council of the ECB for setting interest rates. We use a textual analysis of national newspaper articles related to each European central banker to analyze their expressed preferences. We proceed to a cluster analysis with the results obtained and fi nd that there were favorable conditions for the emergence of coalitions of central bankers according to their common economic concerns. Next, a Taylor rule of each coalition is estimated as well as their desired interest rate. Finally, we assess the contribution of each coalition in setting the interest rate fixed by the ECB. Our results show that the identi fied coalitions have an influence inside the Governing Council for setting the interest rate, that is approximately equal to their respective economic weight in the euro area.

Keywords: Taylor rule; European Central Bank; monetary policy; cluster analysis; decision making process; coalition formation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2012
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.univ-lille.fr/hal-00992646
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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