A Sectoral Prospective Analysis of CO2 Emissions in China, USA and France, 2010-2050

Pascal Da Costa () and Wenhui Tian ()
Additional contact information
Wenhui Tian: LGI - Laboratoire Génie Industriel - EA 2606 - CentraleSupélec

Working Papers from HAL

Abstract: In the context of global warming, many countries have announced their national targets in reducing their CO2 emissions. In order to evaluate the technology roadmaps that are necessary to achieve these targets of CO2 emissions, a flexible modeling framework is proposed in this article. This sectoral model avoids the complex computing operations and can be customized according to different requirements and situations. We simulate the model up to the horizon 2050, which is often seen as a turning point in energy use patterns worldwide (forced by the probable decline in hydrocarbons extraction). The technology roadmaps for governmental targets on CO2 emissions are studied for three typical countries: China, France, and the United States. The model covers the sectors responsible for the greatest part of CO2 emissions: power, transport, residence and industry sector, in studying the impacts of the principle energy technologies, such as energy mix, Carbon Capture and Storage, electric vehicles and energy efficiency. Different from classic cost-effective energy system models, our model provides the technology pathways for different criteria, such as balanced development of energy technology across sectors, availability of energy resources, etc. Besides, the sensitivity of parameters in the model is tested for robust simulations at each step of the work and for all technology roadmaps scenarios.

Keywords: STIRPAT Model; Support Vector Regression; Energy Transition; Sectoral Emission Modeling; Technology Roadmaps (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015-10-12
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ene and nep-env
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-01026302v3
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Downloads: (external link)
https://hal.science/hal-01026302v3/document (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-01026302

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Working Papers from HAL
Bibliographic data for series maintained by CCSD ().