The INDC counter, aggregation of national contributrions and 2°C trajectories

Hélène Benveniste (helene.benveniste@ipsl.jussieu.fr), Patrick Criqui (patrick.criqui@univ-grenoble-alpes.fr), Olivier Boucher (olivier.boucher@lmd.jussieu.fr), Francois-Marie Breon (francois-marie.breon@lsce.ipsl.fr), Céline Guivarch, Emmanuel Prados (emmanuel.prados@inria.fr), Sandrine Mathy, Laetitia Chevallet, Laureline Coindoz (laureline.coindoz@upmf-grenoble.fr) and Hervé Le Treut
Additional contact information
Hélène Benveniste: IPSL - Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - UVSQ - Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines - UPMC - Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 - CEA - Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives - INSU - CNRS - Institut national des sciences de l'Univers - X - École polytechnique - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris - CNES - Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique
Patrick Criqui: équipe EDDEN - PACTE - Pacte, Laboratoire de sciences sociales - UPMF - Université Pierre Mendès France - Grenoble 2 - UJF - Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 - IEPG - Sciences Po Grenoble - Institut d'études politiques de Grenoble - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique
Olivier Boucher: LMD - Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) - UPMC - Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 - INSU - CNRS - Institut national des sciences de l'Univers - X - École polytechnique - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Département des Géosciences - ENS-PSL - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres
Francois-Marie Breon: LSCE - Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] - UVSQ - Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines - INSU - CNRS - Institut national des sciences de l'Univers - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - DRF (CEA) - Direction de Recherche Fondamentale (CEA) - CEA - Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives
Emmanuel Prados: STEEP - Sustainability transition, environment, economy and local policy - Centre Inria de l'Université Grenoble Alpes - Inria - Institut National de Recherche en Informatique et en Automatique - LJK - Laboratoire Jean Kuntzmann - UPMF - Université Pierre Mendès France - Grenoble 2 - UJF - Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 - Grenoble INP - Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique
Laetitia Chevallet: équipe EDDEN - PACTE - Pacte, Laboratoire de sciences sociales - UPMF - Université Pierre Mendès France - Grenoble 2 - UJF - Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 - IEPG - Sciences Po Grenoble - Institut d'études politiques de Grenoble - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique
Laureline Coindoz: équipe EDDEN - PACTE - Pacte, Laboratoire de sciences sociales - UPMF - Université Pierre Mendès France - Grenoble 2 - UJF - Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 - IEPG - Sciences Po Grenoble - Institut d'études politiques de Grenoble - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique
Hervé Le Treut: UPMC - Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6

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Abstract: Considering that limiting global warming to below 2°C implies a CO2 budget not to be exceeded and near-zero emissions by 21OO (IPCC), we can assess global 2030 greenhouse gas emissions implied by INDCs in comparison to long-term trajectories. Ahead of the COP21, we estimate that submitted INDCs would bring global greenhouse gas emissions in the range of 55 to 64 GtC02eq in 2030.Under this assumption,global emissions in 2030 are thus higher than the level of 51GtC0 2eq for the year 2012. However, this is not in contradiction with a peaking of global emissions that can only be expected after 2020, given in particular the projected dynamics of emissions in China and other developing countries.The published INDCs represent a significant step towards trajectories compatible with the 2°C goal,but remain insufficient to join trajectories presenting a reasonable probability of success.ln order to increase the chance of meeting the 2°C objective, the ambition of the short-term contributions needs to be strengthened in future negotiations.ln order to sustain a high pace in emissions reductions after 2030,structural measures are also needed, which, in order to have a rapi impact, should be prepared as early as possible. Continued efforts are needed to accelerate the development of low carbon solutions on the one hand,and demonstrate the feasibility of negative emissions on the other hand.

Keywords: INDC; CLIMATE NEGOCIATIONS; EMISSIONS REDUCTION; COP21 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015-11
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-env
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.univ-grenoble-alpes.fr/hal-01245354v1
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Published in [Research Report] 32, Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, Climate Modelling Center Scientific Note. 2015, 73 p

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Working Paper: The INDC counter, aggregation of national contributrions and 2°C trajectories (2015)
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