The non stationarity in seasonal series. Application to Tunisian tourism

La non stationnarité dans les séries saisonnières. Application au tourisme tunisien

Chokri Ouerfelli and Marie-Claude Pichery
Additional contact information
Chokri Ouerfelli: LEG - Laboratoire d'Economie et de Gestion - UB - Université de Bourgogne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique
Marie-Claude Pichery: LATEC - Laboratoire d'Analyse et de Techniques Economiques [UMR 5601] - UB - Université de Bourgogne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique

Working Papers from HAL

Abstract: The purpose of the paper is to specify the nature of the seasonal behaviors of tourist stay demand in Tunisia by using recent tools of monthly time series analysis. The available series (tourist expenditures, prices, guest nights, reception capacities,...) are analyzed with the classical theory of demand and the theory of supply induced demand. Empirical results show that these series are generated by non stationary processes which seasonality is stochastic and deterministic. The extent of the maximum likelihood method proposed by Lee (1992) for monthly data emphasizes unit roots and cointegration relationships at some seasonal frequencies. Error correction models are derived for endogenous variables. The use of unadjusted series in logarithm leads to direct estimation of short and long run elasticities ; they provide a particularly interesting description of tourist behaviors in Tunisia and about the response possibility of supply by professionals. They suggest some interpretations in relation to the origin of common sources of seasonality that is probably due to climatic and institutional or economic factors.

Keywords: economics; economic theory; error correction model; seasonality; sociology; social studies; welfare studies; social services; sports; recreation; tourism; supply induced demand; sociologie; conintégration saisonnière; demande induite par l'offre; modèle à correction d'erreur; tourisme (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 1998
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-01527148v1
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Published in [Rapport de recherche] Laboratoire d'analyse et de techniques économiques(LATEC). 1998, 36 p., Graph, ref. bib. : 2 p. 1/2

Downloads: (external link)
https://hal.science/hal-01527148v1/document (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-01527148

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Working Papers from HAL
Bibliographic data for series maintained by CCSD ().