Car ownership in relation to income distribution and consumers' spending decisions

François Lescaroux
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François Lescaroux: IFPEN - IFP Energies nouvelles

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Abstract: This paper proposes a formal model of per-capita private car ownership based on very simple and general assumptions on income distribution and consumers' spending decisions. The author justifies a theoretical S-shaped curve describing changes in ownership as a function of average per-capita income, income's dispersion and the "Cost/utility" ratio of owning a car. He applies the model on a panel of 64 countries and explains past variations in their ownership rates. Then, projections are performed to the year 2030. They suggest that the actual trends are not sustainable, which implies a need for important technical and sociological evolutions.

Date: 2007-11
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://ifp.hal.science/hal-02469396
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