Commodities Markets: New paradigm or new fashion ?

Emmanuel Hache

Working Papers from HAL

Abstract: The huge increase in industrial commodity prices since 2001 has coincided with a new market context, an equation comprising three unknowns : scarcity, price levels and the environment. By again giving raw-material markets a central place in economic analysis and forecasting, this trend begs discussion on our part. The why – What imbalance? Which players? – gives way to the how – Is this trend so different from cycles that have occurred since the early 20th century? Did a raw-material bubble follow the Internet bubble? – and the where are we going – How long will it last?

Date: 2008-07
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