Personal car, public transport and other alternatives? Predicting potential modal shifts from multinomial logit models and bootstrap confidence intervals

Amandine Chevalier and Frédéric Lantz
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Amandine Chevalier: IFPEN - IFP Energies nouvelles, BIPE, CERNA i3 - Centre d'économie industrielle i3 - Mines Paris - PSL (École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris) - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - I3 - Institut interdisciplinaire de l’innovation - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique
Frédéric Lantz: IFPEN - IFP Energies nouvelles

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Abstract: Households' daily mobility in France is characterized by the preponderance of the automobile. Passenger cars, mainly used by households but not only, are thus responsible for more than a half of fuel consumptions in road transport (CGDD/SOeS, July 2013) and more than a half of CO2 emissions in the transport sector (SOeS/CDC, December 2012). The main objective of this paper is thus to explain the modal choice of French households for their daily trips, particularly the importance of the car, and to predict potential shifts from personal car to public transport and other alternatives, especially shared car. An independent multinomial logit model is estimated and reveals the particular importance of car equipment on modal choices and specifically on car use. Predictions by 2020 are conducted according to three cases for the household's motorization (no car, one car, two cars or more) and per different mobility profiles. Personal car should remain the main mode of transportation by 2020 except if households have no car. In that case, modal shares would be more balanced, public transport would become the main transport mode and the shift to shared car would be at a maximum. Modal share of shared car could thus reach 16% for "exclusive motorists". A conditional logit model is also estimated and shows no particular importance of the means of transportation's costs in the modal choices. These results show that the increase in distances between 2010 and 2020 makes motorized modes more necessary. Thus, personal car and public transport should remain the main modes of transportation by 2020. Moreover, expected changes in costs and travel time by 2020 does not seem to have any effect on the deployment of shared car, its modal share being constant (in an average) between 2010 and 2020.

Date: 2013-11
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