Global Imbalances and Imported Disinflation in the Euro Area

Jean Barthélemy and Guillaume Cléaud
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Guillaume Cléaud: CREST - Centre de Recherche en Économie et Statistique - ENSAI - Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Analyse de l'Information [Bruz] - X - École polytechnique - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris - ENSAE Paris - École Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Administration Économique - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique

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Abstract: We estimate a medium-scale DSGE model for the euro area in an open economy framework. The model includes structural trends on all variables, which allow us to estimate on gross data. We first provide a theoretical balanced growth path consistent with permanent productivity shocks, inflation target changes, and permanent shocks to the openness of the economies. We then define the cycle as the gap between this sustainable trajectory and the gross data, thus our model properly deals with deviations of the trade balance. Finally, we find persistent and strong effects from the asymmetric increase of euro area imports during the last ten years on domestic inflation. From the first quarter of 2000 to the last quarter of 2008, we estimate the contribution of the imbalanced development of international trade on euro area inflation to an average of -0,7%, and on the 3-Month interest rate to an average of -1,4%.

Keywords: Global Imbalances; Disinflation; Business Fluctuations; Open Economy Macroeconomics (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2011-06-01
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://sciencespo.hal.science/hal-03461450v1
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Working Paper: Global Imbalances and Imported Disinflation in the Euro Area (2011)
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