Macroeconomic Regimes, Technological Shocks and Employment Dynamics

Tommaso Ferraresi, Andrea Roventini and Willi Semmler
Additional contact information
Tommaso Ferraresi: UniFI - Università degli Studi di Firenze = University of Florence = Université de Florence

Working Papers from HAL

Abstract: In this work we investigate the interrelations among technology, output and employment in the different states of the U.S. economy (recessions vs. expansions). More precisely, we estimate different threshold vector autoregression (TVAR) models with TFP, hours, and GDP, employing the latter as threshold variable, and we assess the ensuing generalized impulse responses of GDP and hours as to TFP shocks. We find that positive productivity shocks, while spurring GDP growth, display a negative effect on hours worked at least on impact, independently of the state of the economy. In the 1957-2011 period, the effects of productivity shocks on employment are abundantly negative in downturns, but they are not significantly different from zero in good times. However, the impact of TFP shocks in different business cycle regimes depends on the chosen sample: after the mid eighties (1984-2011), productivity shocks increase hours during recessions. Finally, we express and test some conjectures that might have caused the changes in the responses in different time periods.

Keywords: Technology shocks; Employment; Threshold vector autoregression; Generalized impulse response functions (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016-06-01
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://sciencespo.hal.science/hal-03469938v1
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Downloads: (external link)
https://sciencespo.hal.science/hal-03469938v1/document (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: Macroeconomic Regimes, Technological Shocks and Employment Dynamics (2019)
Working Paper: Macroeconomic regimes, technological shocks and employment dynamics (2016)
Working Paper: Macroeconomic Regimes, Technological Shocks and Employment Dynamics (2016)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03469938

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Working Papers from HAL
Bibliographic data for series maintained by CCSD ().