On the effectiveness of devaluations in emerging and developing countries

Carl Grekou ()
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Carl Grekou: EconomiX - EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique

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Abstract: In this paper, we address the issue of devaluations' effectiveness by investigating to what extent a nominal devaluation leads to a real depreciation. Beyond the traditional factors identified by the literature, we pay particular attention to the size of the nominal devaluation and to the initial misalignment of the real exchange rate. Using a sample of 57 devaluation episodes (in 40 developing and emerging countries) and relying on panel data techniques, we evidence that the existence of a sizeable overvaluation of the real exchange rate is a prerequisite to ensure that nominal devaluations will have an expected effect in terms of real depreciations. Furthermore, our results put forward a potential nonlinear relationship between the size of the devaluation and the effectiveness of the nominal adjustment: devaluations operate more efficiently when the magnitude of the nominal adjustment is lower.

Keywords: Bayesian model averaging; Currency devaluations; Macroeconomic policies; Real exchange rates’ misalignments. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-04141278
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