On the impact of the launch of the euro on EMU macroeconomic vulnerability

Florian Morvillier ()
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Florian Morvillier: EconomiX - EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique

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Abstract: This paper aims at investigating the role played by the euro's inception on external imbalances and macroeconomic vulnerability of the eurozone. To this end, we estimate a panel VAR model over the pre-euro (1980-1998) and EMU (1999-2016) periods for eleven eurozone members. Our findings show that with the adoption of the single currency, current account vulnerability to demand and currency misalignments shocks increases significantly. The correction of external imbalances within the euro area also becomes more difficult because of the disparition of a slow-growth process and devaluations as adjustment tools.

Keywords: Global imbalances; current account; output gap; exchange-rate misalignments; panel VAR. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-04141675
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