Blowback: The Effect of Sanctions on Democratic Elections

Matthieu Crozet and Julian Hinz

Working Papers from HAL

Abstract: Sanctions are meant to coerce political adversaries through economic measures. However, evidence for their effectiveness is scarce. In this paper we assess the impact of sanctions on a democracy-France-by studying the electoral consequences of the sanctions and countersanctions imposed between Russia and Western countries. Contrary to most of the existing literature we find clear evidence for exposure to the sanctions to cause an increase in the vote share for pro-Russian (and far-right) candidates during the French 2017 presidential election. Locally, the impact on voting is substantial. Back-of-the-envelope calculations indicate that about 16,300 votes for the main far-right candidate can be directly attributed to the sanctions' impact. This is the total number of votes cast in a medium-sized French city. It is however not nearly enough to have affected the outcome of the election at the national level.

Keywords: Sanctions; Elections; Embargo (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023-07-04
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cdm, nep-cis, nep-pol and nep-tra
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-04150484
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://hal.science/hal-04150484/document (application/pdf)

Related works:
Working Paper: Blowback: The effect of sanctions on democratic elections (2023)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-04150484

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Working Papers from HAL
Bibliographic data for series maintained by CCSD ().