The dynamics of fertility under environmental concerns

Paolo Melindi-Ghidi and Thomas Seegmuller ()
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Thomas Seegmuller: AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique

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Abstract: This paper contributes to the literature interested in the new factors that may determine fertility behaviors. Many studies underlay that environmental concerns have a direct effect on households' fertility decisions. We present a dynamic model that explicitly examines this interplay, considering whether the number of children and environmental concerns may be complementary or substitutable. Interesting results occur when environmental concerns and the number of children are substitutable. At a stable steady state, a stronger effect of environmental concerns on household's preferences reduces the number of children, as also stressed by a recent literature. The dynamics can be described by an inversely Ushaped relationship between fertility and environmental indicators reflecting the impact of economic production, such as the carbon intensity, as we illustrate using data on US States. The dynamics also explain that regions with lower carbon intensity are those with lower fertility.

Keywords: Fertility; Environmental concerns; Quantity-quality trade-off; Transitional dynamics (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023-11-15
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Working Paper: The dynamics of fertility under environmental concerns (2023)
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