Identification and Estimation of a Dynamic Multi-Object Auction Model

Samuel Altmann
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Samuel Altmann: PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement

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Abstract: Auctions rarely take place in isolation. Often, many heterogeneous lots are auctioned simultaneously, and auctions are repeated as new lots become available. In this paper I develop an empirical model of bidding in repeated rounds of simultaneous first-price auctions. Incorrectly modelling bidders as myopic or as having additive preferences over lots can lead to inaccurate counterfactuals and welfare conclusions. I prove non-parametric identification of primitives in this model, and introduce a computationally feasible procedure to estimate this type of game. I then apply my model to data on Michigan Department of Transportation highway procurement auctions. I investigate the extent of cost-synergies across lots and use counterfactual simulations to compare equilibrium efficiency when contracts are auctioned sequentially rather than simultaneously.

Date: 2023
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-04465694

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