Impact of the Russia-Ukraine War on two African economies -Egypt and Kenya: a gendered macro-micro modelling assessment

Jorge Davalos, Martin Henseler and Helene Maisonnave (helene.maisonnave@univ-lehavre.fr)
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Jorge Davalos: PEP - Partnership for Economic Policy
Helene Maisonnave: FAI - Université Le Havre Normandie - Faculté des Affaires Internationales - ULH - Université Le Havre Normandie - NU - Normandie Université, PEP - Partnership for Economic Policy (PEP), Nairobi, Kenya

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Abstract: The trade distortions caused by the Russia-Ukraine War have created a crisis that have impacted women more than men, particularly in countries in the Global South. This paper presents a macroeconomic model-based assessment of the economic impacts of the Russia-Ukraine War. Using gendered Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models combined with micro-econometric models, we find that the war-induced price shocks are country-specific, and that women's economic situation drives the impacts of these shocks. Simulating different mitigation policies shows that these policies could help improve the situation of poverty during crises. However, the policies have different impacts on the economy. Given limited fiscal space to fund mitigation policies policymakers are challenged to carefully design mitigation policies that can protect the vulnerable and at the same time support the growth of the economy. The results provided in this macro-micro modelling assessment can support the discussion of policy decision-making by considering women as a vulnerable group.

Keywords: Russia-Ukraine War; trade disruption; gender; food security (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025-02-05
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