How Energy-Transition Metals React to the Green Transformation Ecosystem: Nonlinear Effects of Climate Policy Uncertainty, ESG Sentiment, and Clean Energy Dynamics

Comment les rendements des marchés des métaux réagissent à la transition verte: effets non linéaires de l’incertitude des politiques climatiques, du sentiment ESG et de la dynamique des énergies propres

Imen Omri ()
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Imen Omri: LARSH - Laboratoire de Recherche Sociétés & Humanités - UPHF - Université Polytechnique Hauts-de-France - INSA Hauts-De-France - INSA Institut National des Sciences Appliquées Hauts-de-France - INSA - Institut National des Sciences Appliquées, UPHF - Université Polytechnique Hauts-de-France

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Abstract: This study investigates how metals react to the entire green transformation ecosystem by simultaneously assessing the effect of climate policy uncertainty, sustainability sentiment and technological transition, using AR GARCH and Quantile-on-Quantile Regression (QQR) approach. The findings indicate that metal markets are most responsive under low to medium levels of climate policy uncertainty and clean energy development, which correspond to intermediate or transitional stages of the policy and energy transition process. This implies that investors adjust positions preemptively during early signals of regulatory and sustainability shifts, rather than waiting until uncertainty reaches critical levels. Thus, metals behave as adaptive rather than pure safe-haven assets, with their strategic relevance enhanced not during periods of turmoil, but during progressive movement toward energy transition.

Keywords: ESG; Climate Policy Uncertainty; Metals; Commodity market; Quantile-based Analysis; Green Energy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025-11-28
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://uphf.hal.science/hal-05387112v1
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