Stockpiling or Recycling? Country-Specific Strategies for EV Battery Mineral Security

Yitian Wang (), Joaquin Vespignani and Russell Smyth
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Yitian Wang: Monash university

Working Papers from HAL

Abstract: Accelerating transport electrification is vital for net-zero goals, yet remains hindered by slow, uncertain development of battery minerals. We show how non-technical risk, such as policy, regulatory, social, and geopolitical risk, inflate capital costs, delay greenfield supply, and heighten price volatility for lithium, cobalt, nickel, manganese, graphite, and copper. Combining Fraser Institute investment scores with reserve shares of these critical minerals, we construct dynamic, mineral-specific risk premiums, derive an optimal stockpiling rule balancing risk and storage costs and introduce a distance-to-iso-cost map comparing recycling and stockpiling strategies. Our framework suggests that in 2040 recycling-led stabilization will be the optimal strategy for mitigating non-technical risk for Japan and Korea, strategic stockpiling will be the optimal strategy for China and the United States, and mixed outcomes for Europe. The method that we propose provides a tractable and updateable toolkit for deciding optimal stockpiles and prioritising recycling where it is most cost-effective.

Keywords: Critical Mineral; EV Battery; Stockpiling; Recycling (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026-01-27
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-05397824v1
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Working Paper: Stockpiling or Recycling? Country-Specific Strategies for EV Battery Mineral Security (2025)
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