Beliefs About EU 2030 Climate Commitments Across Public, Expert, and Policy Audiences

Loïc Berger (), Thibault Richard, Johannes Emmerling (), Thomas Epper (), Nahed Eddai (), Mary Sanford, Silvia Pianta, Uyanga Turmunkh and Valentina Bosetti ()
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Loïc Berger: IÉSEG School Of Management [Puteaux], EIEE - European Institute on Economics and the Environment, CMCC - Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici [Bologna], LEM - Lille économie management - UMR 9221 - UA - Université d'Artois - UCL - Université catholique de Lille - ULCO - Université du Littoral Côte d'Opale - Université de Lille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique
Thibault Richard: LEM - Lille économie management - UMR 9221 - UA - Université d'Artois - UCL - Université catholique de Lille - ULCO - Université du Littoral Côte d'Opale - Université de Lille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, HEC Paris - Ecole des Hautes Etudes Commerciales
Johannes Emmerling: CMCC - Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici [Bologna], EIEE - European Institute on Economics and the Environment
Thomas Epper: LEM - Lille économie management - UMR 9221 - UA - Université d'Artois - UCL - Université catholique de Lille - ULCO - Université du Littoral Côte d'Opale - Université de Lille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique
Nahed Eddai: BETA - Bureau d'Économie Théorique et Appliquée - AgroParisTech - UNISTRA - Université de Strasbourg - Université de Haute-Alsace (UHA) - Université de Haute-Alsace (UHA) Mulhouse - Colmar - UL - Université de Lorraine - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, LEM - Lille économie management - UMR 9221 - UA - Université d'Artois - UCL - Université catholique de Lille - ULCO - Université du Littoral Côte d'Opale - Université de Lille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique
Mary Sanford: CMCC - Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici [Bologna], EIEE - European Institute on Economics and the Environment
Silvia Pianta: CMCC - Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici [Bologna], EIEE - European Institute on Economics and the Environment
Uyanga Turmunkh: LEM - Lille économie management - UMR 9221 - UA - Université d'Artois - UCL - Université catholique de Lille - ULCO - Université du Littoral Côte d'Opale - Université de Lille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique
Valentina Bosetti: Bocconi University [Milan, Italy], EIEE - European Institute on Economics and the Environment, CMCC - Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici [Bologna]

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Abstract: The European Union (EU) has adopted ambitious climate policies aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 55% by 2030. While technical, economic, and political feasibility have been widely analyzed, far less is known about a critical enabling factor: whether key societal actors perceive these targets as credible and achievable. Though often correlated with support, beliefs about a policy's effectiveness reflect a different underlying judgment and call for different elicitation methods. In this study, we elicit probabilistic beliefs about future EU emission reductions from a representative sample of citizens across 12 EU member states and compare them with the expectations of climate policymakers and experts. Our findings reveal that, while policymakers and experts are relatively optimistic, the general public is more skeptical, expecting, on average, a 43% reduction by 2030 compared to the EU's 55% target, and expresses substantially greater uncertainty. Moreover, we identify a notable misalignment: stakeholders systematically overestimate public optimism and confidence. These gaps highlight the importance of improving policy communication, addressing public skepticism, and fostering shared understanding to enhance the perceived credibility and political sustainability of the EU's climate goals.

Keywords: Probabilistic beliefs; Credibility; Climate policy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025-12-05
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-05399851v1
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