Exporters’ behaviour in the face of climate volatility

Alex Bao, Philippe Bontems (), Jean-Marie Cardebat and Raphaël Chiappini
Additional contact information
Alex Bao: BSE - Bordeaux sciences économiques - UB - Université de Bordeaux - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement
Philippe Bontems: TSE-R - Toulouse School of Economics - UT Capitole - Université Toulouse Capitole - Comue de Toulouse - Communauté d'universités et établissements de Toulouse - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement
Jean-Marie Cardebat: BSE - Bordeaux sciences économiques - UB - Université de Bordeaux - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement
Raphaël Chiappini: BSE - Bordeaux sciences économiques - UB - Université de Bordeaux - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement

Working Papers from HAL

Abstract: This paper investigates how exporters adjust trade margins to demand shocks and climate-induced production volatility. Combining French wine export data (113 PDOs, 49 destinations, 2001–2020) with high-resolution weather records, we estimate theory-consistent structural gravity models using instrumental variables that exploit exogenous variation in extreme temperatures. Production volatility significantly reduces export volumes, while demand shocks shape market allocation. A heterogeneity shows that exporters absorb production shocks by reallocating supply across markets, protecting volumes in core destinations while curtailing shipments to less profitable peripheral ones. A theoretical model of risk-averse heterogeneous firms rationalizes these findings through scale, redeployment, and selection effects driving export reallocation under climate risk.

Keywords: Gravity model; Heterogeneous Firms.; Demand shocks; Cost shocks; Climate Change (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025-12-05
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-05400931v1
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://hal.science/hal-05400931v1/document (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-05400931

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Working Papers from HAL
Bibliographic data for series maintained by CCSD ().