Cryptocurrencies and Interest Rates: Inferring Yield Curves in a Bondless Market

Philippe Bergault, Sébastien Bieber, Olivier Guéant () and Wenkai Zhang
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Olivier Guéant: UPCité - Université Paris Cité, LPSM (UMR_8001) - Laboratoire de Probabilités, Statistique et Modélisation - UPD7 - Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 - SU - Sorbonne Université - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique

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Abstract: In traditional financial markets, yield curves are widely available for countries (and, by extension, currencies), financial institutions, and large corporates. These curves are used to calibrate stochastic interest rate models, discount future cash flows, and price financial products. Yield curves, however, can be readily computed only because of the current size and structure of bond markets. In cryptocurrency markets, where fixed-rate lending and bonds are almost nonexistent as of early 2025, the yield curve associated with each currency must be estimated by other means. In this paper, we show how mathematical tools can be used to construct yield curves for cryptocurrencies by leveraging data from the highly developed markets for cryptocurrency derivatives.

Date: 2025-12-17
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