What can country panels tell us about broadband price responsiveness? Evidence from the European Union and the Eastern Partnership, 2010–2024

Samir Orujov (), Ilgar Ismayilov and Jeyhun Huseynzade
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Samir Orujov: UBS - Université de Bretagne Sud, ADA University, Baku, Azerbaijan., Information Communication Technologies Agency, LMBA - Laboratoire de Mathématiques de Bretagne Atlantique - UBS - Université de Bretagne Sud - UBO EPE - Université de Brest - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CERGE-EI - UK - Univerzita Karlova [Praha, Česká republika] = Charles University [Prague, Czech Republic] = Université Charles [Prague, Republique tchèque]
Ilgar Ismayilov: Information Communication Technologies Agency, FSV UK - Fakulta sociálních věd, Univerzita Karlova [Praha, Česká republika] = Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University [Prague, Czech Republic] - UK - Univerzita Karlova [Praha, Česká republika] = Charles University [Prague, Czech Republic] = Université Charles [Prague, Republique tchèque]
Jeyhun Huseynzade: Information Communication Technologies Agency

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Abstract: Regulators often judge how strongly broadband adoption responds to price from country panels, because comparable household data are scarce. We examine what such a panel can reveal, using ITU entry-level price baskets for 27 European Union (EU) and six Eastern Partnership (EaP) countries over 2010–2024. A two-way fixed-effects regression of log subscriptions on log prices gives a sizeable negative coefficient whose year-specific values rise steadily towards zero and above, a pattern that suggests broadband has become a necessity. A simulation with no price effect reproduces this pattern when late adopters start with high prices, and the pattern disappears in the data once country-specific trends are removed or the model is estimated in differences. In the EU the association between entry-level prices and adoption is then close to zero throughout; the 90% confidence interval in first differences is [−0.04, 0.02]. In the EaP adoption grew fastest in the years in which affordability improved most, giving coefficients between −0.17 and −0.46. This association rests on movements common to the six countries: with EaP-specific year effects it vanishes, and with small-sample inference it is fragile. Regional data for 175 EU regions show no stronger association in less-developed regions. Country panels of this kind do not identify a price response, and they give no evidence of a break in 2020.

Keywords: Broadband adoption; Affordability; Technology diffusion; Panel data; Small-sample inference; Eastern Partnership (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026-10-01
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