Regional Resilience to Climate-Induced Water Scarcity: Evidence from Seine Aval

Martin Henseler (), Helene Maisonnave () and Enzo Salvatore
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Martin Henseler: LERN - Laboratoire d'Economie Rouen Normandie - UNIROUEN - Université de Rouen Normandie - NU - Normandie Université - IRIHS - Institut de Recherche Interdisciplinaire Homme et Société - UNIROUEN - Université de Rouen Normandie - NU - Normandie Université, PEP - Partnership for Economic Policy (PEP), Nairobi, Kenya
Helene Maisonnave: FAI - Université Le Havre Normandie - Faculté des Affaires Internationales - ULH - Université Le Havre Normandie - NU - Normandie Université, PEP - Partnership for Economic Policy (PEP), Nairobi, Kenya
Enzo Salvatore: LERN - Laboratoire d'Economie Rouen Normandie - UNIROUEN - Université de Rouen Normandie - NU - Normandie Université - IRIHS - Institut de Recherche Interdisciplinaire Homme et Société - UNIROUEN - Université de Rouen Normandie - NU - Normandie Université

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Abstract: This study quantifies the economy-wide impacts of climate-induced groundwater scarcity in the Seine Aval region of Normandy using a regional computable general equilibrium model. Groundwater reductions disproportionately affect water-intensive sectors. Direct output losses are moderate, but indirect effects, including higher water costs, and increased unemployment, amplify social vulnerability. Adaptation strategies targeting demand-side behaviour (household water savings) and supply-side efficiency (network leakage reduction) substantially mitigate negative effects, though neither fully offsets losses. Combined measures and integrated upstream-downstream water management are essential for improving resilience. Results underscore that groundwater scarcity represents both an environmental and socio-economic risk, with implications for sustainable development, employment, and equity in regional planning.

Keywords: regional computable general equilibrium; Normandy; water governance; economic modelling; policy scenarios; impact assessment (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025-12-30
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