Visible Gains, Invisible Losses: A Formal Approach to the Seduction Trap and the Accumulation of Social Graves

Gains visibles, pertes invisibles: une approche formelle du piège de la séduction et de l'accumulation des tombes sociales

Philibert Andriamanantena (), Rajaonah Andriasalama () and Ratsimbazafy Ratsimbazafy ()
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Philibert Andriamanantena: Université de Fianarantsoa
Rajaonah Andriasalama: Université de Fianarantsoa
Ratsimbazafy Ratsimbazafy: ENS, Université de Fianarantsoa

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Abstract: Attractive stochastic systems often generate visible gains while accumulating latent structural costs. This paper introduces a rigorous spectral framework for quantifying such hidden-cost dynamics within absorbing Markov models. We define the Hidden Graveyard Cost (HGC) as the expected cumulative hidden exposure prior to absorption and express it in closed form through the resolvent operator (I −Q) −1 of the transient subsystem. We establish that hidden-cost finiteness is equivalent to the spectral condition ρ(Q)

Keywords: risque systémique,spectral radius,modélisation sociale absorbing Markov chains,coût caché,rayon spectral,chaînes de Markov absorbantes,Hidden Graveyard Cost,Social Modeling,Systemic Risk,Cumulative Invisible Losses,Latent Externalities,Social Network Attrition,Seduction Trap,modélisation sociale absorbing Markov chains spectral radius Hidden Graveyard Cost,pertes invisibles cumulées,externalités latentes,attrition des réseaux sociaux,piège de séduction,chaînes de Markov absorbantes; rayon spectral; coût caché, piège de séduction, attrition des réseaux sociaux, externalités latentes, pertes invisibles cumulées, risque systémique, modélisation sociale. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026-03-02
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