The Macroeconomic Impact of Earthquakes on Growth: A Tale from Two Datasets

Rabah Arezki, Youssouf Camara, Patrick Imam and Kangni Kpodar
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Rabah Arezki: John F. Kennedy School of Government - Harvard University, CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne, FERDI - Fondation pour les Etudes et Recherches sur le Développement International
Youssouf Camara: McGill University = Université McGill [Montréal, Canada]
Patrick Imam: International Monetary Fund (IMF)
Kangni Kpodar: International Monetary Fund (IMF), FERDI - Fondation pour les Etudes et Recherches sur le Développement International

Working Papers from HAL

Abstract: This paper uses two different historical accounts of the occurrence of earthquakes to identify the effects of these shocks on aggregate economic outcomes. We find that the use of a widely popular dataset Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT) that records natural disasters restricted to occurrence with high level of damage points to statistical negative consequences of earthquakes on economic growth. Yet, these results do not hold when using a more comprehensive dataset from the United States Geological Survey (USGS) systematically recording earthquakes irrespective of the associated damage. The two results can be reconciled when isolating case of high-damage earthquakes in the context of poor countries often associated with weaker state capacity. These findings confirm the negative consequences of natural disasters' role on economic development in poor countries and highlight the importance of systematic data collection of natural disasters.

Keywords: Earthquake; Economic growth; Poor countries (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026-04-27
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-05603649

DOI: 10.5089/9798229025621.001

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