Quel impact des variations du prix du pétrole sur la croissance française ?

Muriel Barlet and Laure Crusson
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Muriel Barlet: INSEE - Institut national de la statistique et des études économiques (INSEE)
Laure Crusson: INSEE - Institut national de la statistique et des études économiques (INSEE)

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Abstract: The two "oil shocks" of the 1970s reduced the GDP growth rate. Since that period, sudden oil price increases have been considered as a major source of economic slowdown. We estimate VAR models and Markov-Switching models to evaluate the impact of oil price increases on French growth. Our results indicate a breakdown in the relationship between oil prices and economic activity at the beginning of the 1980s. Over the period 1980-2006, our estimations show a slight negative effect of oil price increases only during low-growth phases. Our models also underlight a slowdown in the foreign demand following an oil price increase. The GDP growth rate is indirectly affected by this foreign demand decrease.

Keywords: oil shocks; GDP growth rate; breakpoints; VAR models; Markov-Switching models; chocs pétroliers; croissance du PIB; changement de régime; modèles VAR; modèles de Markov-Switching (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2007-03
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