The Rise (and Fall?) of China's Demand for Imported Timber: A Network Analysis of the International Roundwood Trade

Valentin Mathieu () and David Shanafelt ()
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Valentin Mathieu: SILVA - SILVA - AgroParisTech - UL - Université de Lorraine - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, BETA - Bureau d'Économie Théorique et Appliquée - AgroParisTech - UNISTRA - Université de Strasbourg - Université de Haute-Alsace (UHA) - Université de Haute-Alsace (UHA) Mulhouse - Colmar - UL - Université de Lorraine - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement
David Shanafelt: BETA - Bureau d'Économie Théorique et Appliquée - AgroParisTech - UNISTRA - Université de Strasbourg - Université de Haute-Alsace (UHA) - Université de Haute-Alsace (UHA) Mulhouse - Colmar - UL - Université de Lorraine - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement

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Abstract: The international trade in wood products is an increasingly complex, interconnected component of the global economy, shaped by environmental, geopolitical, competitive, and macroeconomic forces. While the literature offers comprehensive studies of the international timber trade, few examine the structure of the trade network itself, leaving its evolution poorly understood. To address this gap, we model global roundwood trade as a network of country-to-country flows from 1996 to 2023 and analyze two downstream products -sawnwood and wood-based panels -as separate networks to detect movements up the value chain. The roundwood network proved resilient: economic crises, the COVID-19 pandemic, trade disputes, and ecological disasters register only as short-term perturbations, never as structural breaks. Over the long term, however, it grew more interconnected and more polarized around a single demand hub: China, through which around 71% of total roundwood trade value flowed by 2021. This concentration is demand-side rather than supply-side: a fragmented export market, from which Russia has structurally withdrawn, set against demand centered on China. Dependence on a single buyer is the network's chief vulnerability. China's contribution has fallen since 2021, under geopolitical disruptions, domestic self-sufficiency policies, and structural economic shifts. The retreat reflects a broad contraction in its import demand, not a move up the value chain: its roundwood and sawnwood imports fell together. These findings point to an emerging post-China era, in which the most exposed exporters, such as New Zealand, face pressure to diversify -both by finding new markets and by moving up the value chain.

Keywords: Globalization; Trade; Wood products; Network theory; Resilience; Market concentration; Forest policy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026-07-20
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