State of the art: Economic development through the lens of paintings

Clément Gorin, Stephan Heblich and Yanos Zylberberg
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Clément Gorin: UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne
Stephan Heblich: University of Toronto, NBER - National Bureau of Economic Research [New York] - NBER - The National Bureau of Economic Research
Yanos Zylberberg: University of Bristol [Bristol]

Working Papers from HAL

Abstract: This paper uses 627,369 paintings dating back to 1400 to study how societies experienced major socioeconomic transformations. We develop computer vision algorithms to extract two signals from each artwork—emotional expression and visual indicators of material living standards—and validate them against modern measures of wellbeing and economic output. Our empirical analysis documents how populations experienced socioeconomic changes by exploiting variation in emotional and material signals within artists' oeuvres, conditional on painting subgenres. While both signals respond to shocks to living standards, such as climate or trade shocks, emotional expression also varies with broader economic and institutional conditions, often without corresponding changes in material outcomes. These findings suggest that paintings provide a long-run measure of experienced welfare, complementing conventional indicators of economic performance.

Date: 2026-10-12
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