Metro Expansion, Bus Ridership, and Road Traffic: Evidence from Chinese Cities

Guillaume Monchambert () and Yao Wang
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Guillaume Monchambert: Université de Lyon, UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2, LAET - Laboratoire Aménagement Économie Transports - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - ENTPE - École Nationale des Travaux Publics de l'État - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique
Yao Wang: Shandong Technology and Business University

Working Papers from HAL

Abstract: Does expanding metro networks reduce road traffic, or does it mainly reallocate passengers within public transport? We examine metro openings and network expansion in a panel of Chinese cities spanning 2000-2023, combining metro ridership, bus passengers and fleets, vehicle kilometers traveled (VKT), and road congestion. A common-sample comparison of bus ridership and VKT uses 1,029 city-years from 113 cities. Following the first metro opening, bus ridership is approximately 14% lower, whereas the bus fleet shows no detectable corresponding adjustment. Bus ridership continues to decline over subsequent years. In contrast, neither metro openings nor network-length increases are associated with a statistically detectable reduction in aggregate VKT, and we find no clear decline in the city-level congestion index. These patterns complement previous evidence of metro-bus substitution and localized congestion relief by measuring aggregate road use alongside public transport demand. They are consistent with limited metro-automobile substitution or with offsetting adjustments in road travel, which our data cannot distinguish. The estimates describe within-city relationships rather than causal effects of metro investment. Our findings underscore the limits of using metro ridership alone to assess changes in urban road use.

Keywords: Metro expansion; Bus ridership; Vehicle kilometers traveled; Road congestion; Multimodal transport; China; Working Papers du LAET (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026-11
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