The timing of biological carbon sequestration and carbon abatement in the energy sector under optimal strategies against climate risks

Vincent Gitz, Jean Charles Hourcade () and Philippe Ciais ()
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Vincent Gitz: CIRED - centre international de recherche sur l'environnement et le développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement
Jean Charles Hourcade: CIRED - centre international de recherche sur l'environnement et le développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique
Philippe Ciais: LSCE - Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] - UVSQ - Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines - INSU - CNRS - Institut national des sciences de l'Univers - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - DRF (CEA) - Direction de Recherche Fondamentale (CEA) - CEA - Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives

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Abstract: This paper addresses the timing of the use of biological carbon sequestration and its capacity to alleviate the carbon constraint on the energy sector. We constructed a stochastic optimal control model balancing the costs of fossil emission abatement, the opportunity costs of lands allocated to afforestation, and the costs of uncertain climate damages. We show that a minor part of the sequestration potential should start immediately as a ‘brake', slowing down both the rate of growth of concentrations and the rate of abatement in the energy sector, thus increasing the option value of the emission trajectories. But, most of the potential is put in reserve to be used as a ``safety valve'' after the resolution of uncertainty, if a higher and faster decarbonization is required : sequestration cuts off the peaks of costs of fossil abatement and postpones the pivoting of the energy system by up to two decades.

Keywords: séquestration biologique du carbone; cycle du carbone; dommages climatiques; contrôle optimal stochastique; système énergétique; biological carbon sequestration; carbon cycle; climate damages; optimal stochastic control; energy sector (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2006-02-28
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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