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Business Cycles Synchronization in East Asia: A Markov-Switching Approach

Gilles Dufrénot () and Benjamin Keddad ()

Working Papers from HAL

Abstract: This paper attempts to analyze the relationships between the ASEAN-5 countries' business cycles. We examine the nature of business cycles correlation trying to disentangle between regional spillover effects (expansion and recession phases among the ASEAN-5 are correlated) and global spillovers where the business cycles of other countries (China, Japan and the US) play an important role in synchronizing the activity within the ASEAN-5. We employ a time-varying transition probability Markov switching framework in order to allow the degree of synchronization to fluctuate over time and across the phases of the business cycles. We provide evidence that the signals contained in some leading business cycles can impact the ASEAN-5 countries' individual business cycles.

Keywords: monetary union; markov-switching; OCA; East Asia; business cycle synchronization (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013-09
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-bec, nep-lam, nep-ltv, nep-mac, nep-neu, nep-opm and nep-sea
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-00861901
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Related works:
Journal Article: Business cycles synchronization in East Asia: A Markov-switching approach (2014) Downloads
Working Paper: Business cycles synchronization in East Asia: A Markov-switching approach (2014)
Working Paper: Business Cycles Synchronization in East Asia: A Markov-Switching Approach (2013) Downloads
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