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Effects of eliciting long-run price forecasts on market dynamics in asset market experiments

Nobuyuki Hanaki (), Eizo Akiyama () and Ryuichiro Ishikawa ()
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Ryuichiro Ishikawa: School of International Liberal Studies, Waseda University

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Abstract: In this study, we investigate (a) whether eliciting future price forecasts influences market outcomes and (b) whether differences in the way in which subjects are incentivized to submit ``accurate'' price forecasts influence market outcomes as well as the forecasts in an experimental asset market. We consider four treatments: one without forecast elicitation and three with forecast elicitation. In two of the treatments with forecast elicitation, subjects are paid based on their performance in both forecasting and trading, while in the other treatment with forecast elicitations, they are paid based on only one of those factors, which is chosen randomly at the end of the experiment. We found no significant effect of forecast elicitation on market outcomes in the latter case. Thus, to avoid influencing the behavior of subjects and market outcomes by eliciting price forecasts, paying subjects based on either forecasting or trading performance is better than paying them based on both.

Keywords: Price forecast elicitation; Experimental asset markets (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-exp and nep-for
Date: 2017-10
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-01263661v2
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Working Paper: Effects of Eliciting Long-run Price Forecasts on Market Dynamics in Asset Market Experiments (2017) Downloads
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