Effects of eliciting long-run price forecasts on market dynamics in asset market experiments
Nobuyuki Hanaki (),
Eizo Akiyama () and
Ryuichiro Ishikawa ()
Additional contact information
Ryuichiro Ishikawa: School of International Liberal Studies, Waseda University
Working Papers from HAL
In this study, we investigate (a) whether eliciting future price forecasts influences market outcomes and (b) whether differences in the way in which subjects are incentivized to submit ``accurate'' price forecasts influence market outcomes as well as the forecasts in an experimental asset market. We consider four treatments: one without forecast elicitation and three with forecast elicitation. In two of the treatments with forecast elicitation, subjects are paid based on their performance in both forecasting and trading, while in the other treatment with forecast elicitations, they are paid based on only one of those factors, which is chosen randomly at the end of the experiment. We found no significant effect of forecast elicitation on market outcomes in the latter case. Thus, to avoid influencing the behavior of subjects and market outcomes by eliciting price forecasts, paying subjects based on either forecasting or trading performance is better than paying them based on both.
Keywords: Price forecast elicitation; Experimental asset markets (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-exp and nep-for
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-01263661v2
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3) Track citations by RSS feed
Downloads: (external link)
Working Paper: Effects of Eliciting Long-run Price Forecasts on Market Dynamics in Asset Market Experiments (2017)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-01263661
Access Statistics for this paper
More papers in Working Papers from HAL
Bibliographic data for series maintained by CCSD ().