[GREDEG Working Paper 2020-17] Expectations and Full Employment: Hansen, Samuelson and Lange

Michaël Assous, Olivier Bruno, Vincent Carret () and Muriel Dal-Pont Legrand ()
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Vincent Carret: TRIANGLE - Triangle : action, discours, pensée politique et économique - ENS de Lyon - École normale supérieure de Lyon - Université de Lyon - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - IEP Lyon - Sciences Po Lyon - Institut d'études politiques de Lyon - Université de Lyon - UJM - Université Jean Monnet - Saint-Étienne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique
Muriel Dal-Pont Legrand: GREDEG - Groupe de Recherche en Droit, Economie et Gestion - UNS - Université Nice Sophia Antipolis (1965 - 2019) - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UniCA - Université Côte d'Azur
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Muriel DAL PONT LEGRAND

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Abstract: [GREDEG Working Paper 2020-17] From the outset, expectations were a central part of the first macrodynamic models and early growth theories. In the 1940s, a third line of research emerged which questioned the capacity of an economy to reach full-employment equilibrium. Starting with Alvin Hansen (1938) and culminating with Oskar Lange (1944), the crux of the debate evolved from the existence of full employment equilibrium to analysis of its stability, suggesting an increased role for expectations and finally challenging the economic system's global stability. The present paper traces those debates through the contributions of Hansen, Paul Samuelson and Lange. Using archives materials, we show that while Samuelson's analysis of instability remained implicit, his correspondence reveals that he encouraged Oskar Lange to examine it more carefully. Lange's results are presented in his 1944 Cowles Commission Monograph. We point out that his contribution cannot be understood in isolation either from his exchanges with Samuelson or the way that Keynesian ideas were being interpreted in the United States. The paper finally questions Samuelson's view on instability and expectations

Keywords: Lange; wages dynamics; full-employment; Samuelson; (in-)stability; expectations; Hansen (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020-06-19
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-02874697

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