And yet it rocks! Fluctuations and growth in Ragnar Frisch's rocking horse model
Vincent Carret ()
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Vincent Carret: TRIANGLE - Triangle : action, discours, pensée politique et économique - ENS Lyon - École normale supérieure - Lyon - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - IEP Lyon - Sciences Po Lyon - Institut d'études politiques de Lyon - Université de Lyon - UJM - Université Jean Monnet [Saint-Étienne] - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique
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Ragnar Frisch's famous "rocking horse" model has been the object of much praise and even controversy since its publication in 1933. In this paper, we propose a new simulation of the trajectories of the model to clarify those controversies and show that there exists cyclical solutions for a large set of parameters. By building an analytical solution that takes the same form as Frisch's original solution, we are also able to provide new insights into the ideas that he encapsulated in his model. In particular, we show that the author tried to construct a model that would combine both cycles and growth. Finally, the exploration of Frisch's formal construction of the model leads us to link his statistical work on the decomposition of time series with the construction of the 1933 model.
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