British voting intentions and the far reach of 9/11

Elena Stancanelli ()
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Elena Stancanelli: PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris

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Abstract: This study adds to the literature on the effects of terrorism on voting behaviours. It examines the impact of the 9/11 terrorist attacks, in New York, on voting preferences in the UK, implementing a Regression Discontinuity Design with British Household Panel Survey daily data on thousands of British voters, observed before and after 9/11. It concludes that intentions to vote for the Conservative Party significantly increased, while support for the Labour Party declined, at least among marginal voters. In contrast, voters close to a political party strengthened their support for Labour, the incumbent party at the time, to reduce that for the Conservatives, as in a rally-round-the-flag effect. Voters' responses significantly differed by gender: marginal votes for the Conservatives increased, especially among men, while the rally-round-the-flag effect was mostly driven by the responses of women. These findings may help reconcile earlier, contrasting evidence of terrorism voting impacts.

Keywords: Conflict economics; Voting Behaviour; Household economics (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025-09
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-05284863v1
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