Global Income Inequality by 2050: Convergence, Redistribution, and Climate Change

Philipp Bothe (), Lucas Chancel (), Amory Gethin () and Cornelia Mohren ()
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Philipp Bothe: PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris
Lucas Chancel: Institut d'Études Politiques [IEP] - Paris, PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris
Amory Gethin: BM = WB - La Banque Mondiale = The World Bank - WBG = GBM - World Bank Group = Groupe Banque Mondiale
Cornelia Mohren: Institut d'Études Politiques [IEP] - Paris, PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris

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Abstract: This article investigates how national income convergence, government redistribution, and climate change will shape the global distribution of income until 2050. Despite ongoing convergence in national income, the global bottom 50% post-tax income share only marginally rises from 10% to 12% under "business-as-usual", while the top 1% share remains constant. Yet, modest national-level redistribution policies can raise the global bottom 50% share to up to 19%. Policies involving redistribution of pre-tax income are particularly effective in reducing global inequality. Climate change is set to exacerbate inequalities, potentially offsetting all convergence effects since 1980.

Keywords: Income Inequality; Redistribution; Climate Change (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025-05
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-05500216v1
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