Reassessing the benefits of European integration and the European Union's ability to achieve strategic autonomy

Lionel Fontagné and Yoto Yotov

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Abstract: European integration is now faced with the question of strategic autonomy. Against this backdrop, this paper has three objectives. First, it uses disaggregated trade data and established empirical methods to assess the benefits of European integration on trade among the members of the European Union (EU) as well as on trade between EU members and non-member countries, including non-members that are part of the Single Market. Second, it evaluates the costs of EU strategic autonomy -implying not trading with "riskier" partners. Third, it asks whether deeper integration within the EU can alleviate these costs. The paper shows that the gains from European integration are substantial, albeit heterogeneous across Member States, non-members, and sectors, and that the costs of strategic autonomy can be offset by deeper, but comparatively more modest, integration efforts within the European Union.

Keywords: Strategic Autonomy; Risky Suppliers; Trade; Single Market; European Integration (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026-02
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-05512419v1
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Working Paper: Reassessing the benefits of European integration and the European Union's ability to achieve strategic autonomy (2026)
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