Quantifying the Trade Impact of SPS and TBTs with Product-level Structural Gravity

Fabio Artuso, Julian Clarke (), Lionel Fontagné (), Mahdi Ghodsi () and Gianluca Santoni ()
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Fabio Artuso: ADB - Asian Development Bank
Julian Clarke: ADB - Asian Development Bank
Lionel Fontagné: PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris
Mahdi Ghodsi: The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies--wiiw
Gianluca Santoni: PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris

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Abstract: Non-tariff measures (NTMs), particularly sanitary and phytosanitary measures (SPS) and technical barriers to trade (TBTs), have become essential components of climate, industrial, and regulatory policies and affect the majority of global trade. However, it is generally challenging to quantify their effects on trade using a standard gravity model, due to their generally non-discriminatory nature. Using a multistage structural gravity estimation strategy combined with a control-function correction for endogeneity, we estimate the trade elasticities and ad valorem equivalents of NTMs at the HS6 level for over 5,000 products. Our results reveal significant heterogeneity in tariff-equivalent NTM effects, especially in environmentally relevant sectors, such as clean technologies and electric vehicles. These estimates can inform regulatory impact assessments and general-equilibrium analyses of climate-aligned trade policies.

Keywords: Non-tariff measures; Ad valorem equivalents; Environmental goods; Critical minerals (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026-07
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-05686851v1
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