Nominal and real interest rates in OECD countries

Claude Bismut and Ismael Ramajo
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Claude Bismut: CEE-M - Centre d'Economie de l'Environnement - Montpellier - FRE2010 - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - UM - Université de Montpellier - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Montpellier SupAgro - Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier
Ismael Ramajo: CEE-M - Centre d'Economie de l'Environnement - Montpellier - FRE2010 - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - UM - Université de Montpellier - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Montpellier SupAgro - Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier

CEE-M Working Papers from CEE-M, Universtiy of Montpellier, CNRS, INRA, Montpellier SupAgro

Abstract: This paper revisits the economic theory of the interest rates and presents some estimation results obtained on annual macroeconomic data for a panel of OECD countries. The conventional macroeconomic theory based on the saving investment balance falls short of producing a consistent picture for the medium-term trends of the interest rates and related variables. The main reason lies in the fact that the usual propensity to save specification does not account for the observed saving behavior, and it turns out that an intertemporal approach works better. Some other extensions of the basic model are also discussed to account for the external influence and the risk premia on public bonds. Based on this theoretical discussion, an econometric relation is estimated on annual data for a panel of 19 OECD countries. The tests confirm the influence of the factors suggested by the theory and, in particular, the link between the fall in the interest rate and the economic slowdown. The role of the inflation expectations, of the real exchange rate and of the risk premia on public debt is also discussed and clarified.

Keywords: Interest rate; real interest rate; risk premia macroeconomic policy; potential growth; stagnation; panel data; Taux d’intérêt; taux d’intérêt réel; primes de risque; politique macroéconomique; croissance potentielle; économétrie de panels. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mac
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